This week past I was privileged to attend a talk by the Nedbank chief economist Nicky Weimar, who gave an overview on our economy, set against the world economy.
Salient points raised by her were:
- Covid shifted consumer demand from services towards goods – with lockdown this increased demand, exacerbated delivery costs, and the resulting backlog led to a significant rise in global prices.
- The current inflation expectations will not be long-lived, as the fear of a global economic downturn will ease rising costs. In fact, she holds that by the end of next year inflation will still be lower, on average, then we had pre-Covid.
- The historical strength of the dollar to the euro will probably be maintained for a while, given the probability of money shifting to the US on the back of fear and rising US interest rates.
- The US is currently in a technical recession and the Euro Zone will probably follow suit. China has serious issues, and all of this will undoubtedly spill over into the South African economic scene.
- South Africa’s trade and current account surplus will probably lose impetus, but fixed investments will probably pick up.
- The normalisation of household income in South Africa will probably impact positively on our unemployment figures and, with a national debt to GDP ratio of 65%, we should be shielded from a global recession.
- She therefore predicts a GDP of 1.5% which is good, compared to the expectation of global recession (you would have noted that the IMF upgraded our expected GDP to 2.3% for this year).
According to the Big Max Index, the dollar is overvalued against our Rand by 54.5% implying an exchange rate of R 7.75 to the dollar. The prediction is that the Rand will strengthen against the dollar in the next few weeks. This
Moneyweb published a note on the JSE top 40 returns: in essence over the past 12 months, that index’s has risen 1.9% and, if one includes dividends, the total return is some 5.6%. This underperforms inflation and, if one considers this against the backdrop of the dollar, our market has fallen around 9% in US dollar terms. On the other hand, this is reasonably favourable if one compares this drop against the S&P and the NASDAQ performance over the same term.
In a similar vein, is a statistic published by Codera, that says that our growth per capita income is not too shabby, compared with some of our peers; but still way behind that of other countries: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/daan-steenkamp-48a42520_long-term-per-capitagrowth-activity-6957546921825570816-lXSH/
For those of us who do not read the Sunday newspapers, is a Sunday Times note that the ANC is reviving a proposal that an additional (wealth) tax on the wealthy should be considered to fund Basic Income Grant scheme. Desperate times…
PSG reported that stage VI load shedding cost us R4bn for each day it continued.
Businesstech has published a ranking, by subject, of local universities: worth a look if your child wishes to read one of the topics listed: https://businesstech.co.za/news/lifestyle/609502/the-best-universities-in-south-africa-to-study-these-subjects/?
I was heartened by news that Rheinmetall Denel Munition is (and will be) producing electrical buses, scooters and bakkies within South Africa.
Whilst on the cost of cars: TopAuto has published a trip calculator which produces a cost for your vehicle over a given route: https://drivingcost.topauto.co.za/
Businesstech ran an article on the Ombudsman for Banking Services, which reported that he had been receiving complaints from bank customers, relating to banks coming after prescribed debt. Do reconsider if your debt sought to be collected is in excess of three years old.
A report holds that both ShopRite/Checkers and latterly PicknPay (which intends splitting its core brand to more effectively serve higher-end shoppers) are intruding upon the Woolies premium market position.
- A slippery Hlope? Judge Hlope’s legal team has reportedly contemplating having the process followed by the JSE, which led to its recommending that Hlope be taken to task, struck down.
- It is reported that the NPA has issued a nolle prosequi in respect of alleged Sharemax wrongdoing.
- The repeated attacks on patrons within taverns undoubtedly prompted the following article on the legal duty of care owed by taverns to its customers: https://www.golegal.co.za/legal-duty-taverns/
- Suretyships and community of property is debated by Bregman in: https://www.golegal.co.za/marriage-property-suretyship/
- Fancy a free will? https://wewill.online/
- If you require a summary of the easy way to appoint a curator bonus for someone who is mentally ill, ask me.
- What tax relief is there when companies merge? https://www.phinc.co.za/OurInsights/ArticleDetail.aspx?
- We all know that personal servitudes lapse when the holder of the servitude becomes the owner of the property over which the servitude is held: perhaps not? http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZAWCHC/2022/95.html
- Does an advocate have a claim against the Fidelity Fund where an attorney misappropriates a payment destined for that advocate’s fees from his trust account? http://www.saflii.org.za/za/cases/ZASCA/2022/115.html
- De facto control over a trust and the calculation of accrual: http://www.saflii.org.za/za/cases/ZASCA/2022/116.html
- An oral agreement, dealing with land, is unenforceable by virtue of its non-compliance with the Alienation of Land Act, but it does give rise to other obligations: http://www.saflii.org.za/za/cases/ZAWCHC/2022/141.html (drawn to my attention by West)
- Counter spoliation? I do not have the case reference available yet, but my attention was drawn to this principle by an article in the Daily Friend written by Jeffrey – this should appear in a day or two and refers to a case in the Western Cape High Court between the municipality and illegal occupants.
- TPN reports on an increase in residential tenants, defined as tenants turned squatters, who have not paid three consecutive months of rental but continue to occupy the property.
- If you appeal to CSOS and fail, what are your remedies? https://www.golegal.co.za/csos-order-appeal/
- Can you install a generator in your sectional unit? https://www.millers.co.za/OurInsights/ArticleDetail.aspx
- Ooba reports an uptick in bond applications for buy-to-rent properties.
- Building plans in the Western Cape accounted for 34% of the national total – cementing its spot as the go-to residential destination in South Africa.
- Nedbank will now allow any person, irrespective of the banking affiliation, access to its asset-backed solar finance solution package.
The so-called step-aside resolution of the ANC, which holds that members who have been criminally charged or face serious charges must step aside from leadership positions, pending the finalisation of the cases, was apparently challenged by many within that party. That this is the case indicates that a sizeable proportion of that party does not see anything wrong in unproven allegations of mis-governance.
A recent report on the proposed increased taxation of imported tyres, in order to protect the South African tyre manufacturing industry, is another example of protection, extended to few, at the expense of many.
The social contract theory, purportedly between those who govern and those who are governed, originated with the Sophists in Greece and was popularised in the 17th and 18th century by Hobbes, Locke and Rousseau (https://iep.utm.edu/soc-cont/). President Ramaphosa needs private money to fund government projects and founds his appeal on such a contract. The difficulty is that his appeal is not founded upon a negotiated agreement and quite probably that his proposed partners have lost faith in the government keeping promises. However, if successful, such an agreement could have wide-ranging results.
The Russian/Ukrainian war is taking its toll on the Russian economy – take a look: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm
Old age isn’t so bad when you consider the alternative.
The really frightening thing about middle age is that you know you’ll grow out of it.
He has a profound respect for old age. Especially when it is bottled.
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